Concluding Remarks

The Brass methods of estimating q(x) are known to provide lower boundaries of parameter estimates only. Further, an average age at marriage exceeding 19 years invites us to attach less weight to estimates of q(x), x=1,5, using the second age group (20-24). Although we have used weighted averages to arrive at univariate estimates of q(1) and q(5), we tend to believe that a more realistic lower bound for q(x) should be taken from the age group 25-29.

In this section we have presented indirect estimates of infant and under five mortality rates. The rates are at the same level as in neighbouring countries, but are, however, much lower than for the Jewish population in Israel. Childhood mortality in the occupied territories seems to have been declining rapidly in the last 15 years. The decline is not expected to continue as fast in the future since health-related improvements become harder to achieve after they reach a certain level.

Figure 2.10a Infant mortality rate q(1)   and  Figure 2.10b Child mortality rate q(5)


al@mashriq                       960715