Limitations on Input Parameters

The results in this section should be viewed cautiously due to the limitations pertaining to the input parameters that are used in the population projections. In particular, one should keep in mind the following constraints involving input data for projections:

  1. There is no information regarding the reliability of the estimated population total for the year 1992. Whether such an estimate over- or under-estimates the actual population will not be known as long as no new census is conducted.
  2. Being an estimate resulting from a sample survey, the FALCOT 92 age structure used in the projections is subject to both sampling and non- sampling errors.
  3. Due to prevailing political conditions in the occupied territories, no particular pattern of migration can be assumed with any degree of realism. Therefore, no matter how the assumptions concerning trends of future net migration are put, they will represent an educated guess only.
  4. Our estimates of the total fertility rate and the infant mortality rate are themselves limited and not very reliable due to data limitations (see the discussion in the infant mortality section).
  5. The assumed future trends of mortality and fertility decline are not based on any systematic study of past trends. There is no local literature on this issue except for the Israeli produced estimates, which might be suspected of being unreliable due to under-reporting.
  6. Due to lack of enough information on most parameters, we will not be able to present projections by region (West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Arab Jerusalem).

al@mashriq                       960715